Following a week of exciting MSI 2023 Play-In matches, the Mid-Season Invitational enters the Bracket Stage, where the world’s top League of Legends teams will begin their quest to win the prestigious MSI 2023 trophy.
The MSI 2023 Bracket Stage will kick off on Tuesday, May 9, with a clash between G2 Esports and Gen.G, who last met in the quarterfinals of the League of Legends World Championship 2020, when G2 Esports won 3-0. It’s been nearly three years since then, and a lot has changed, but the question remains – can G2 Esports cook up another upset and defeat the reigning LoL Champions Korea (LCK) champions?
G2 Esports vs Gen.G
When: Tuesday, May 9, at 13:00 BST
G2 Esports and Gen.G will clash on Tuesday, May 9, in the first round of the Mid-Season Invitational 2023 Bracket Stage, in what should be a fairly one-sided fixture. According to the latest esports betting odds, G2 Esports are heavy underdogs (3.75 at bet365) to come out ahead and defeat Gen.G (1.25), and while the offered betting odds look fair, it’s fair to ask ourselves where are those numbers coming from?
I’ve already mentioned it before, but I’ll do it again – G2 Esports are the best team from LoL EMEA Championship (LEC), which might not sound fair considering they’ve not won the LEC 2023 Spring trophy. However, the eye test and G2’s performance metrics would suggest otherwise.
On the other side, Gen. G won the LoL Champions Korea (LCK) 2023 Spring Split, and deservingly so, but compared to T1, I would still rank Gen.G below their regional rivals in terms of chances to win the MSI. Of course, that doesn’t mean that Gen.G can’t do it or that they’re a terrible team – but I have more hope for T1 to make a deeper run, and not necessarily due to how the MSI 2023 Draw seeded the teams.
But How Do G2 Esports And Gen.G Compare?
Objectively, Gen.G are stronger than G2 Esports, mainly due to two factors – Gen.G hail from a much stronger region and have excellent players across all five positions. I wouldn’t put too much weight on the team’s performances in their respective leagues since we’re two patches and a month removed from it, so I don’t really care about how Gen.G won their league, and G2 didn’t.
Barring any surprises, Gen.G should defeat G2 Esports; however, then there’s a question of whether the offered LoL betting odds offer any value. At 1.234 (Pinnacle), Gen.G are expected to win the best-of-five series 81% of the time and lose no more than a map (1.549) 64.6% of the time.
That opens up an interesting discussion of whether G2 Esports can win at least two maps and potentially upset Gen.G. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing to have happened at the MSI. Despite being individually better, Gen.G isn’t the most consistent team, not to mention how unbalanced the red/blue side matchup seems to be.
So far this tournament, the Blue Side has a 60% win rate, 72% first Herald, 64% first tower, and 54.2% first Nash rate.
This comes with an asterisk since G2 were on the Blue side twice against LOUD, Bilibili Gaming got the Blue side twice against Movistar R7 and Golden Guardians, and Golden Guardians played two Blue side games against Movistar R7. So even though Gen.G will have a side selection on Tuesday, it might not matter too much.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see G2 Esports keep it close, and at the offered betting odds, I’m ready to pull the trigger.
- Prediction: G2 Esports +1.5 maps – 2.49 at Pinnacle
We’ll continue with our MSI 2023 betting coverage tomorrow when we take a look at a clash between MAD Lions and T1 in the second round of the Bracket Stage. If you want to learn more about esports betting, check out our hub, where you can find tutorials, guides, recommended bookmakers, and the best esports betting tools & services.