T1 failed to withstand JD Gaming, who sent the Korean juggernauts into the lower bracket, where T1 now await their next opponent, who will be decided on Friday, May 19. The penultimate match before the MSI 2023 grand finals will see Gen.G clash with Bilibili Gaming for the first time ever in what should be a proper test for both teams.
Esports betting sites have priced Gen.G as 1.20 favourites to defeat LoL Pro League (LPL) second seed, who will enter the Rift as 4.33 underdogs. That might not seem too crazy, but the closer I look at this match, the more it seems like betting on Bilibili Gaming makes more sense. Now let’s explain why that is.
Gen.G vs Bilibili Gaming
When: Friday, May 19, at 13:00 BST
Even before the MSI 2023 started, I had Gen.G as the third-strongest team, behind T1 and JD Gaming, and I’ve yet to change my mind. They’ve so far beaten G2 Esports and Cloud9 and came just one map short of defeating T1, which is seriously impressive.
Bilibili Gaming, on the other side, have first cruised through the Play-In stage, then won against Cloud9, lost against JD Gaming and bounced back with a 3-1 victory against G2 Esports. Results-wise, Bilibili Gaming are in a good spot, but as I’ve mentioned before, they’re flawed.
Despite BLG’s very strong early game, they have yet to impress me with their mid-late game transition and had they played teams that were a bit more efficient, Bilibili Gaming would’ve not looked as dangerous ahead of this match. This is still a very good team, but I can’t help but feel concerned about whether Gen.G will manage to exploit BLG’s mid game.
If The Price Is Right
Gen.G have looked better than Bilibili Gaming so far across their games at MSI 2023. But that is mainly because Gen.G haven’t been as sloppy in the mid-late game as Bilibili Gaming, which is the big and only reason why I consider Gen.G as the more likely victor. That’s not to say that Gen.G are perfect or that they can’t be beaten, but based on what they’ve shown, they have fewer weaknesses, meaning fewer win conditions BLG can play around.
That said, Bilibili Gaming tend to do much better in the early game, so their win condition is to get ahead early, survive the mid-late game transition and use the lead to roll to the opponent’s Nexus. Gen.G, on the other side, have to not fall too far behind early and take advantage of Bilibili Gaming’s mid-late game sloppiness. So it all seems like this game is more on Gen.G to shut down the Chinese squad than on Bilibili Gaming to do anything special – they just need to play their own game, and hope Gen.G doesn’t punish them.
This might make it seem like I consider Bilibili Gaming stronger, which is not the case, but the point is that Gen.G perhaps shouldn’t be priced as 1.20 favourites, which is a very high price for a match between two elite-tier teams.
The offered esports betting odds are too good not to side with Bilibili Gaming. I’m taking BLG with a 1.5 map handicap and adding a smaller position on BLG to win the series. Betting on kills here doesn’t look too appealing, but I wouldn’t hold it against anyone who likes time total overs.
- Prediction: Bilibili Gaming to win 4.33 at bet365
- Prediction: Bilibili Gaming +1.5 maps – 2.50 at bet365
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