League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2024 Spring enters the second round of Week 4 on Sunday, February 11. It will be the final round of action before a three-week break, and if the second round is anything like the first, we can expect to see a few more exciting games with underdogs exceeding expectations.
LCS Spring 2024 Week 4 – Day 2 Picks
Cloud9 vs 100 Thieves Betting Pick
When: Sunday, February 11, 13:00 PST
Cloud9 got back on track yesterday with a victory over NRG Esports, ending their three-game dry streak during which they’ve lost against Immortals, FlyQuest, and Team Liquid. As noted, Cloud9, despite their shaky run through LCS Week 3, is still the best team in the league, so seeing them beat NRG – who are still overrated – isn’t too surprising.
It also doesn’t prove much besides that Cloud9 might have rediscovered the needed traction to perform as well as we know they can.
100 Thieves defeated Team Liquid on Saturday. It was probably their best game so far this season, but 100 Thieves should still lose it, and they would’ve had Lim “Quid” Hyeon-seung not solo won the game. It was a huge win for 100 Thieves, who are now second in the league, but I wouldn’t overreact to it.
Cloud9 are miles ahead of 100 Thieves quality-wise, which is a fact, even though there’s a lot of hype around the young 100T roster. At the offered price, Cloud9 to cover 6.5 kills is the only wager that makes sense, and knowing how much better they are C9 can easily stomp 100 Thieves.
However, Cloud9 also tend to play slower games, so unless you believe Cloud9 run over 100T, this is a pass.
- Prediction: None
Immortals vs FlyQuest Betting Pick
When: Sunday, February 11, 14:00 PST
Regardless of their loss against Shopify Rebellion on Saturday, FlyQuest are still firm favourites to defeat Immortals. At 1.36 they seem pretty cheap, but I don’t have enough trust in this team as they’ve not shown much yet this LCS split. Their crushing loss against Shopify Rebellion doesn’t help.
Favourites in the LCS haven’t been delivering as frequently as expected, so any time we have a strong favourite facing an underdog, it’s fair to explore options to back the outsiders. This also applies in this match.
Immortals haven’t looked great, and they produced quite a chaotic game against Dignitas on Saturday, but they’ve also looked much better in earlier LCS fixtures. Their biggest weakness is the early game, but even with that handicap, Immortals have managed to keep most of their games so far competitive.
We could see a longer game here. Immortals can be resilient, and it’s likely that FlyQuest will approach this match with a bit more caution and slow it down to avoid another humiliating loss.
- Prediction: None
NRG vs Dignitas Betting Pick
When: Sunday, February 11, 15:00 PST
NRG Esports are priced as 1.36 favourites (bet365) to defeat Dignitas, which is quite a big price to pay for a team that hasn’t looked very good. I’m not saying NRG are bad – they’re just not great – and NRG have not shown enough to earn that number.
Dignitas aren’t very good either, but they’ve looked decent in their recent LCS games. They have an explosive early game, which Dignitas usually use to gain an advantage and use it to snowball. NRG have had a couple of games like that as well, but it’s not like that’s their identity.
Quality-wise, NRG have a slight edge, but not enough to justify the current LoL esports betting odds. I like Dignitas with a kill handicap, and I’m adding a smaller position on the underdog to upset.
- Prediction: Dignitas +6.5 kills – 1.95 at Unibet, 1 unit
- Prediction: Dignitas to win – 3.00 at bet365/Unibet, 0.5 units
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Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion Betting Pick
When: Sunday, February 11, 16:00 PST
Shopify Rebellion are arguably the most interesting team in the LCS, but also a team you never know how they’ll perform. Against weaker opponents, Shopify Rebellion suffers bad losses, but when faced with stronger sides, they go against all the odds and cause an upset.
Shopify Rebellion picked up their third win of the season yesterday when they derailed FlyQuest quite convincingly. A 3-5 record is far from perfect, but it includes wins against Cloud9, NRG, and FlyQuest – essentially the league’s top three teams.
If Shopify Rebellion managed to take down FlyQuest, they surely should do well against Team Liquid, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them well on Sunday. But any team facing Liquid needs to overcome Liquid’s strong lanes, which is where they tend to get the biggest leads.
Things in LCS (or anywhere in the world), in the current meta aren’t that black-or-white. The current meta forces are very volatile games pre-20 minutes, which is especially noticeable in the LCS, where they play on live patches. We can also consider that Liquid are known to throw games and still field a big liability in the mid lane.
The LoL betting odds look pretty close to where they should be, but at 2.75, I’m taking a stab with Shopify Rebellion. They tend to be a bit unpredictable, but Team Liquid are one of the LCS top dogs that are beatable by any team.
- Prediction: Shopify Rebellion to win – 2.75 at bet365, 1 unit