LEC 2023 Summer Groups Betting Picks - Sunday, July 16
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LEC 2023 Summer Groups Betting Picks – Sunday, July 16

The first round of LEC 2023 Summer Groups is behind us, with Excel Esports and SK Gaming securing a spot in the second round of Group B, but the battle for the LEC 2023 Summer Playoffs tickets is far from over.

On Sunday, July 16, we have two more exciting games Team Heretics vs Team BDS, followed by KOI vs G2 Esports, who’ll kick off Group A.

Team Heretics vs Team BDS Betting Preview

When: Sunday, July 16, 18:00 CEST

Team BDS finished LEC 2023 Summer regular season in fifth place, with a 4-5 record, one win below Team Heretics, who put together five wins (5-4), including one against BDS in the final round of the second week.

Team Heretics have looked decent throughout the season, and I like what they’ve put together so far. They’re not your typical top contenders but have fairly solid gold metrics and are very solid in mid-game. Stat-wise, Heretics are the third-best team in the LEC 2023 Summer in gold-related metrics and are just one of four (besides G2, Fnatic, and Excel) to have a positive Gold Differential Per Minute (+17).

Moreover, Heretics have the league’s best dragon control (67.8%) and first blood rate (77.8%). The more you think about it, weight in their performance metrics, and what Heretics have shown on the Rift, you realise that this is actually a solid team.

Heretics are priced at 1.66 to defeat Team BDS with esports betting sites, which is more than fair. Team BDS, in comparison, ranks bottom-three in the league across all performance stats, and their showings on the Rift don’t inspire much confidence either. They are, however, not that much weaker than Hertetics and can potentially match up nicely on Sunday.

Heretics are fairly weak in the top side, where Team BDS tend to be the strongest, so there is a win condition BDS can aim for. The problem is that Team BDS will approach every game with a small window in which they can get ahead and snowball to victory. If that condition isn’t met, Heretics will overrun BDS with their superior mid-late game.

  • Prediction: Heretics to win – 1.746 at Pinnacle

KOI vs G2 Esports Betting Preview

When: Sunday, July 16, 21:00 CEST

G2 Esports are priced as 1.14 favourites to defeat KOI on Sunday, which is about the same price we got on Fnatic to defeat SK Gaming on Saturday. But as big as it is, this looks like a fair offer.

G2 Esports are by far the best team of LEC 2023 Summer, and they have been the top team this entire season. Purely focusing on their results might not give that impression, but stat-wise, they’re a class above everyone else. Moreover, even those figures don’t paint the full picture.

This is an extremely good team, and watching them play gives off the impression that G2 are just bored. Even in interviews, the players have noted that Fnatic are the only team they like to scrim against as they’re the only ones to offer some resistance. But the eye test alone should be enough to confirm that G2 Esports hasn’t been playing at 100% this split.

They realistically didn’t have to and still won the LEC 2023 Summer regular season, but they’ve been a frustrating team to bet on because G2 like to play around with their food. So in games involving G2 Esports and any other team but Fnatic the only real question is whether G2 Esports will take it seriously.

That was a long rant about G2 Esports, without any mention of KOI because there isn’t a whole lot to say about KOI. They finished LEC 2023 Summer regular season in eighth place with a 4-5 record (tied with MAD Lions, SK Gaming, and Team BDS) and have not won a single game against a good team.

This is not the old Rogue team, and their performance figures speak for themselves.

As noted, betting on G2 Esports is believing that they won’t screw up, and as much as they’re known to slip due to being overly confident, I expect to see a better, more disciplined version of G2 Esports in the LEC 2023 Summer Groups and into the playoffs.

  • Prediction: G2 Esports -1.5 maps – 1.666 at Pinnacle

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