LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview - Round 1, Day 2 Betting Picks
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LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview – Round 1, Day 2 Betting Picks

The first day of League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Playoffs Round 1 is behind us, with Fnatic and Team Vitality securing their spots in the second round. However, there are still two more games left to be played, as Team Heretic clash with Team BDS and MAD Lions taking on G2 Esports on Sunday, March 31.

LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Round 1, Day 2

Team Heretics vs Team BDS Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 31, 17:00 CEST

Team Heretics finished the LEC 2024 Spring regular season in fourth place, with a 6-3 record, which technically set them in a four-way tie with G2 Esports, Fnatic, and Team Vitality. But out of the four teams who managed six wins, Team Heretics are arguably the weakest.

Heretics have outperformed the expectations quite a bit, and based on their performance metrics, they aren’t that good. Their early-game ranks as one of the worst in the LEC, and it’s not like Heretics have looked good in any other part of the game. This might explain why Heretics are priced as underdogs against Team BDS, even though BDS ended the season in fifth place with a 5-4 record.

TeamGDMKills/GameDeaths/GameDragon%Baron%GD@15
Team BDS183313.713.451.3%57.4%-103
Team Heretics182015.410.854.4%70.8%-221

Team Heretics have a side choice for this series, which bumps them up a bit, but even with that, it’s tough justifying backing them over Team BDS. Both teams have been playing better in the latter stages of the LEC 2024 Spring regular season, especially Team BDS, who had a rough start to the split.

Using best-of-one (BO1) results to say what will happen in the BO3 series usually doesn’t work, and I especially have doubts about Team BDS and their ability to deliver in BO3s. However, they’ve been playing better than Heretics lately and should be priced as bigger underdogs.

  • Prediction: Team BDS To Win – 1.78 at Unibet, 1 unit

G2 Esports vs MAD Lions Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 31, 20:00 CEST

I might sound like a broken record by now, but G2 Esports are LEC’s best team but the gap between them and Fnatic has closed a bit lately. Even though G2 Esports have been dominant for most of the split, they have produced some shaky games recently.

MAD Lions, on the other side, looked incredible in the LEC 2024 Winter but not that great in the spring split. They ended the regular season in seventh place with just four wins, which is far from perfect and it’s not like they were unlucky to end up where they did. On a more positive note, the MAD Lions played better in the final games of the split, so there is hope they find some traction.

Obviously, G2 Esports are stronger than MAD Lions, and the esports betting odds make that very clear. But we have to remind ourselves that by winning the LEC 2024 Spring, G2 Esports already have a Mid-Season Invitational 2024 Play-In spot secured, so even if they crash out of the LEC 2024 Spring playoffs, they’ll be going to the tournament. They still can fight for a direct seed into the bracket stage, so it’s not like G2 will just roll over and die.

Regardless, going against G2 Esports looks like the right play here, mainly because the price is too big. While I wouldn’t trust the MAD Lions to defeat G2, they can win a map.

  • Prediction: MAD Lions +1.5 Maps – 1.90 at bet365, 1 unit

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