LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview Round 1 Day 3 Betting Picks
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LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview – Round 1, Day 3 Betting Picks

League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Playoffs enter the final day of Round 1 on Tuesday, April 2, when SK Gaming clashes with Team Heretics and GIANTX take on MAD Lions in hopes of keeping their lower-bracket dream alive.

LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Round 1, Day 3

SK Gaming vs Team Heretics Betting Pick

When: Tuesday, April 2, 17:00 CEST

SK Gaming had their moments throughout the LEC 2024 Spring regular season and looked like a team that will soon find some traction. They have shown some good qualities over the last month, but their most recent performances left a lot to be desired.

With how SK Gaming have been playing, it’s very difficult to keep defending them and the potential this roster has. They seem to approach their games a bit too recklessly, and while that might work if they could outmatch their opponents individually, this isn’t the case.

TeamGPMBlue Win%Red Win%Dragon%Baron%GD@15
Team Heretics1774.154.4%35.7%48.7%45%-584.9
SK Gaming1817.342.9%43.8%48.9%52.9%-1050.3

Team Heretics continue to be a middling LEC team. They’re not bad, but far from great, with concerning early-game metrics and questionable mid-late game numbers. They have a better gold difference than SK Gaming at 15 minutes but drop significantly at the 20-minute mark with over 1000 deficit.

If we look at the teams’ most recent games, Team Heretics have looked cleaner than SK Gaming – which mostly has to do with SK Gaming’s abrupt drop in quality of performances. This also explains why SK Gaming are priced as underdogs and while SK Gaming have the potential to be better than how they seem, the price seems fair.

  • Prediction: None

GIANTX vs MAD Lions Betting Pick

When: Tuesday, April 2, 20:00 CEST

MAD Lions are priced as 1.40 favourites to defeat GIANTX who enter the match as 2.75 (bet365) underdogs and while this is a big number, it just might be fair. GIANTX have not looked good throughout the LEC 2024 Spring regular season, and they didn’t leave a good impression in their 0-2 loss against Fnatic.

TeamGPMBlue Win%Red Win%Dragon%Baron%GD@15
GIANTX1733.644.4%26.7%46.9%41.4%-795.5
MAD Lions1851.350%50%46.9%53.6%+859.7

MAD Lions definitely don’t look as dangerous as they did in LEC 2024 Winter, and I wouldn’t consider them serious title contenders. But they’re still a tier above GIANTX, regardless of how you look at this matchup. They look stronger in the early game, perform better in mid-game and are more efficient in closing out games. You could even make a case for MAD Lions fielding better players across all positions.

GIANTX will have side choice for this match which makes betting on MAD Lions to sweep a bit more concerning. However, even with this advantage, fading GIANTX at this price looks like the right call.

  • Prediction: MAD Lions -1.5 maps – 2.54 at Pinnacle, 1 unit
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