LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview - Round 2 Betting Picks
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LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Preview – Round 2 Betting Picks

The second round of the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Playoffs is set for Monday, April 1, when Team Vitality clash with Team BDS, followed by LEC’s El Classico between Fnatic and G2 Esports.

All four teams have looked good so far this split and are the current best-performing squads in the league, yet only two will advance to the fourth round and take one step closer to claiming the ticket for the Mid-Season Invitational 2024 bracket stage.

LEC Spring 2024 Playoffs Round 2

Team Vitality vs Team BDS Betting Pick

When: Monday, April 1, 17:00 CEST

Team Vitality struggled a bit against SK Gaming in the opening round, but they ended up winning the series 2-1, justifying their tag as the favourites. Likewise, Team BDS made it past Team Heretics on Sunday in a quick 2-0 series, setting themselves up for another deep run in the playoffs.

Heading into Monday’s series, Team BDS are priced as favourites, which makes some sense. They looked cleaner in the latter parts of the LEC 2024 Spring regular season, and they had an easier time in the opening round of the playoffs. And even if we compare the teams’ performance metrics, Team BDS sit slightly above Team Vitality.

TeamGPMBlue Win%Red Win%Dragon%Baron%GD@15
Team BDS1873.550%72.2%54.1%62.6%+538.2
Team Vitality1859.150%53.8%52.5%42.2%+241.8

Team BDS is far more efficient with their Baron control at 62.6% and is far more effective on the red side. Overall, BDS is a better team in neutral objective control and outperform Vitality across most metrics, so seeing them priced as favourites makes sense.

Still, this has the making of a competitive series. Vitality’s figures are slightly worse, but we have to consider that both teams have been ramping up recently and that Vitality have side choice.

This can easily end up as a three-map series, but Team BDS at 1.75 with Unibet is a fair offer.

  • Prediction: Team BDS To Win – 1.75 at Unibet, 1 unit

Fnatic vs G2 Esports Betting Pick

When: Monday, April 1, 20:00 CEST

The second match of LEC 2024 Spring Playoffs Round 2 will serve us with the LEC’s El Classico, as G2 Esports clashes with Fnatic for a spot in the upper bracket finals. G2 and Fnatic have proven to be by far the best teams in the league and while I’ve mentioned before that there are arguments to be made in favour of Fnatic as the current best LEC team, G2 remain the top dogs of the West.

Both squads won their LEC 2024 Spring Round 1 series quite easily granted they played relatively weak opponents, so we can’t take much from it.

TeamGPMBlue Win%Red Win%Dragon%Baron%GD@15
G2 Esports1944.984.2%69.2%51.4%70%-127.8
Fnatic1889.784.7%42.1%57.6%52%+532.4

Most of the team’s stats don’t necessarily translate to how they’ll do on Monday, as there’s a clear gap between Fnatic and G2 and the rest of the league. But there is a clear trend of Fnatic having a much stronger early game, whereas G2 Esports usually come online in the mid-late game with their strong macro.

Based on everything we know, G2 Esports are a stronger team, but they’re not that as strong as the LEC betting odds suggest. Fnatic beat G2 Esports in the second week of the regular season and they’ve since looked just as good, so even though this is a best-of-three series, 3.00 seems a bit too generous of an offer.

Betting against G2 Esports comes at its cost, as this is the best team in the West, but the price is right.

  • Prediction: Fnatic to win – 3.00 at bet365, 1 unit
  • Prediction: Fnatic -1.5 maps – 6.00 at Unibet, 0.5 units

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