LEC Spring 2024 Week 1 Preview - Day 2 Betting Picks
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LEC Spring 2024 Week 1 Preview – Day 2 Betting Picks

League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Split continues with the second round of LEC 2024 Spring Week 1 on Sunday, March 10. The opening day produced a few exciting games and gave us a glimpse into how the teams will do, but as always, round one games should be taken with a grain of salt.

As a result, I’m taking a more passive approach to today’s games, as it’s difficult to draw conclusions based on the first round of a new split.

Team Vitality vs Team BDS Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 10, 17:00 CET

Team Vitality took care of business against Team Heretics, but it wasn’t the most dominant showing. Heretics held on well on Saturday and had their chances, but ultimately, Vitality proved to be the better team.

Team BDS played a relatively close game against G2 Esports before things got out of hand. Seeing BDS do “relatively” well against G2 Esports proves nothing because G2 Esports messed around and made it look closer than it should be. Maybe Team BDS are actually that good – but based on one game it’s not wise to make any conclusions.

As for the esports betting odds, I would prefer Team Vitality, but we don’t have enough data on the teams to pull the trigger.

  • Prediction: None

Team Heretics vs Rogue Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 10, 18:00 CET

Rogue failed to impress on the opening day of the LEC 2024 Spring, but it’s also difficult to look good against the league’s second-best team. Heretics did relatively well against Vitality, but here, we must consider that Heretics had to play a much weaker opponent.

One of those situations where you can’t make a firm decision on which team to bet. I would lean toward Rogue at plus money, but this is purely because, at this stage, most of the matches between mid-table teams are 50/50.

  • Prediction: None

Fnatic vs Karmine Corp Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 10, 19:00 CET

Fnatic kicked off the LEC 2024 Spring the way they were expected to. They had a good showing against Rogue, and they’re expected to do just as well against Karmine Corp.

Karmine Corp actually played a good game on Saturday, and it seems like the long break helped them in some way. They produced a decisive win against GIANTX, and if they can keep playing at this pace, Karmine Corp just might turn things around this LEC split.

Both teams are now set to face a tougher opponent in what will be a proper test for Karmine Corp as much as it’ll be a proper test for Fnatic. I don’t see a problem with bookmakers pricing Fnatic as the favourites, although you could make a case for Karmine Corp as a solid pick at 2.75 (bet365).

  • Prediction: None

GIANTX vs SK Gaming Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 10, 20:00 CET

GIANTX and SK Gaming both lost their LEC 2024 Spring Round 1 matches, and neither looked good at it. It’s also difficult to say which of the two teams showed more, since it’s still unclear whether Karmine Corp are any good.

We’re still very early into the season, and quality-wise, there’s not much to separate SK Gaming and GIANTX. This makes GIANTX at 2.38 (Pinnacle) an inviting pick, yet it again comes down to taking the side of the underdogs against a similarly talented team just because we’re early into the split.

  • Prediction: None

MAD Lions vs G2 Esports Betting Pick

When: Sunday, March 10, 21:00 CET

G2 Esports took care of business against Team BDS on Saturday, but they had their iffy moments. This is a rematch from the LEC 2024 Winter finals, where the MAD Lions were expected to do some damage with their explosive playstyle, and the same idea applies here.

Especially in Bo1s, explosive and high-variance teams will often take maps off the strong favourites, and knowing that G2 Esports tend to produce shaky games during the regular split, makes backing MAD Lions an increasingly more inviting option.

The kill line for this match is set at 31.5, which is an absurd number, but it also proves that this is expected to be an explosive and bloody match – a type of match where MAD Lions usually shine. I wouldn’t take kill totals, as it’s entirely possible one team gets ahead early and snowballs, but I mentioned it to show what the theme of this game is expected to be.

I’m taking a smaller position on MAD Lions. They proved they can dance with G2 Esports early this LEC season, and while this is still G2’s game to lose, 3.14 is a bit too generous to ignore.

  • Prediction: MAD Lions to win – 3.14 at Pinnacle, 1 unit
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