LEC Spring 2024 Week 1 Preview - Day 3 Betting Picks
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LEC Spring 2024 Week 1 Preview – Day 3 Betting Picks

The final round of League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Week 1 is set to kick off on Monday, March 11, featuring the final five games of the opening week of the second split.

So early into the season, we still have no clear idea of where the teams stand, but surprisingly, underdogs haven’t been too successful – despite the fact that outsiders tend to perform better early into a new split.

So, will the trend of favourites winning continue in LEC 2024 Spring Week 1 Round 3?

Rogue vs Team BDS Betting Pick

When: Monday, March 11, 17:00 CET

Team BDS entered LEC 2024 Spring, considered as a competitive team, but they got absolutely stomped in both of their games so far. In their defence, one was against G2 Esports, but BDS also looked completely toothless against Team Vitality.

Rogue are in a similar spot, with a 0-2 record ahead of the final round of LEC 2024 Spring Week 1, with defeats against Fnatic and Team Heretics. They looked somewhat good against Fnatic but got smashed by Heretics, which is a weird combination of results, and it definitely doesn’t help figuring out where they stand.

Again, we have to remind ourselves that we’re early into the season, and while underdogs haven’t been too successful this split, this looks like a match where you either take the outsiders or leave it alone. No team in the league has looked good besides Fnatic and G2 Esports, and this definitely applies to BDS and Rogue.

It’s likely that Team BDS just run away with the game if they manage to force a more fast-paced match, but if Rogue manage to contain Team BDS early and force their slower-paced game, there’s a good chance Rogue will get their names on the board.

  • Prediction: Rogue to win – 3.25 at bet365, 1 unit
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SK Gaming vs Team Vitality Betting Pick

When: Monday, March 11, 18:00 CET

This is a weird matchup, between Team Vitality who like to play higher-scoring games and SK Gaming who are more of an under team. Team Vitality have looked better so far in LEC 2024 Spring with two wins compared to SK’s one victory against GIANTX, which explains why Vitality are priced as favourites.

The esports betting odds don’t price them that far apart, which is fair, and while Vitality weren’t a team I would trust in this situation’s last split, they’ve improved and will probably win. SK Gaming are no slouches and can definitely cook up something, so at the current prices, I’m passing on this match.

  • Prediction: None

GIANTX vs MAD Lions Betting Pick

When: Monday, March 11, 19:00 CET

GIANTX have yet to win a game in the LEC 2024 Spring, but things could be much worse. They had their moments against Karmine Corp and SK Gaming and came very close to beating SK. Against Karmine Corp, GIANTX got blown open, so there’s not much to take from that game.

MAD Lions are priced as 1.36 (bet365) favourites for this match, which, considering what they’ve accomplished last split, sounds fair. But this is still a very big number for so early into the split, especially since there aren’t enough games to draw any firm conclusions.

Pinnacle has GIANTX priced at 1.934 with a +7.5 kill handicap, which might interest some, but I don’t have a good enough read on the teams to recommend a wager.

  • Prediction: None

Team Heretics vs Fnatic Betting Pick

When: Monday, March 11, 20:00 CET

Team Heretics picked up their first win of the split against Rogue on Sunday after suffering a rough defeat against Team Vitality at the start of the weekend. A win is a win, but they’ve not shown enough to believe Heretics will do well against Fnatic.

We’re early into the LEC 2024 Spring split so any conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt. But Fnatic have looked excellent in the two games played, largely thanks to the mid-jungle duo. They still have their iffy moments like they did in LEC 2024 Winter, but Fnatic have proven they’re an elite team, more than capable of crushing anyone who is not close to their level.

This should end in a dominant win for Fnatic, but knowing that they are more than capable of producing a few blunders, I would stay clear of any big handicaps for now.

  • Prediction: None

G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp Betting Pick

When: Monday, March 11, 21:00 CET

Priced at 1.25 (bet365), G2 Esports are expected to crush Karmine Corp and once again we rain into the question of whether it makes sense to back, what is otherwise an objectively much stronger team, at such a price so early into the season?

Karmine Corp looked OK against GIANTX and completely toothless against Fnatic, which might be a good indication of where thy stand. On a more positive note, Karmine Corp are playing better than in LEC 2024 Winter, but I don’t believe they’re quite ready to face off and defeat G2 Esports.

  • Prediction: None

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