LEC Spring 2024 Week 3 Preview Day 1 Betting Picks 1
| |

LEC Spring 2024 Week 3 Preview – Day 1 Betting Picks

The second round of the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2024 Spring Week 3 is set for Saturday, March 23, 2024, featuring five series and six LEC teams who are still in the race for a playoff spot. After yesterday’s games, Team Heretics and Team Vitality joined Fnatic and G2 Esports as two of four teams that are guaranteed to enter the knockout stage, but there are still four more spots left for grabs.

Which teams will make it out of the LEC 2024 Spring group stage and into the playoffs, and which are the best esports betting opportunities for Saturday? Let’s check it out!

SK Gaming vs Fnatic Betting Pick

When: Saturday, March 23, 17:00 CET

SK Gaming are again big underdogs for their upcoming LEC 2024 Spring fixture against Fnatic. Admittedly, Fnatic are a better team, and it’s impossible to argue with that. However, we have to ask ourselves how much better are the Black & Orange.

Fnatic probably shouldn’t have lost against Team BDS on Friday, yet they did, which only proves that Fnatic, despite being one of two elite LEC teams, can lose to weaker sides. The only thing we should be concerned with is at what price fading Fnatic makes sense.

Esports betting sites have SK Gaming priced at 3.40, suggesting that Fnatic should win just under 30% of the time. This is an absurdly high number for a best-of-one, especially considering SK Gaming are better than Team BDS – who beat Fnatic on Friday.

I won’t overcomplicate things. SK Gaming are priced too generously and are a solid pick on moneyline and kill handicap markets.

  • Prediction: SK Gaming to win – 3.40 at bet365, 0.5 unit
  • Prediction: SK Gaming +8.5 kills – 1.83 at Unibet, 1 unit

Team Vitality vs GIANTX Betting Pick

When: Saturday, March 23, 17:45 CET

Team Vitality defeated Karmine Corp on Friday, and locked in their ticket for LEC 2024 Spring playoffs. Deservingly so. I still have some doubts about this team and their ability to consistently deliver, given their volatile past, but as mentioned Vitality have improved in that aspect.

This is a perfect time for Vitality to disappoint me once again, just as I start believing they’ve improved and become more consistent, but the eye test proves that Vitality has figured something out and is performing well. But perhaps an even bigger reason for why backing Vitality here makes sense is that GIANTX haven’t improved one bit.

GIANTX have won just two series this split and in the five losses, they got absolutely crushed. They either win by a marginal amount or get rolled over, which makes fading GIANTX on a kill handicap market the right play. However, Team Vitality’s average kill lead in victories sits at just over 5 kills.

I wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to take Vitality with a -7.5 kill handicap, but that’s slightly too big of a number for my taste.

  • Prediction: None

Team BDS vs MAD Lions Betting Pick

When: Saturday, March 23, 18:30 CET

Team BDS picked up their fourth victory of LEC 2024 Spring on Friday when they beat Fnatic. I wouldn’t overreact to that victory, but Team BDS have been slowly improving. On the other side, MAD Lions have been trending the opposite direction.

On Friday, MAD Lions lost to Team Heretics, marking their third loss over the last four games – the other two coming against Karmine Corp and Team Vitality.

Comparing the two teams, Team BDS have a worse early-game than MAD Lions, but they perform better in mid-late game. Moreover, Team BDS, despite failing to consistently get leads, always manage to convert the early lead into something. In other words, if BDS get ahead early they’re almost guaranteed to come out on top, and even if they don’t I doubt MAD Lions’ mid-late game is good enough to make something happen if they get ahead.

Team BDS are not cheap, but they’re still the better team.

  • Prediction: Team BDS to win – 1.66 at bet365, 1 unit
  • Get an exclusive 0.10% cashback on PS3838 (Pinnacle clone) via PremiumTradings.

Rogue vs G2 Esports Betting Pick

When: Saturday, March 23, 19:15 CET

G2 Esports are priced as 1.20 favourites (bet365) to defeat Rogue, which sounds about right. Perhaps you could argue that even at 1.20, G2 Esports are a cheap pick.

Rogue haven’t been performing well in LEC 2024 Spring and their 1-6 record tells a lot about where this team stands. G2, on the other side overtook Fnatic on the standings after their rivals slipped against Team BDS and unless we’re in for a major upset, G2 Esports should end the regular season in first place.

Talking about the esports betting odds, G2 Esports closed as 1.25 favourites over SK Gaming on Friday, even though SK Gaming are a much better team than Rogue. Technically, we’re getting some value backing G2 Esports.

The kill line is set at 6.5, which is definitely a number G2 Esports could cover, but with this team, you never know when they decide to play with their food.

This also makes taking total kills less appealing – unless you can figure out whether G2 Esports just want to be done with the game and close it out quickly or play around with new champions, in preparation for the playoffs.

  • Prediction: None

Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics Betting Pick

When: Saturday, March 23, 20:00 CET

Despite their loss to Team Vitality on Friday, Karmine Corp have definitely improved from LEC 2024 Winter. Thier performance metrics are not terrible, but the eye test proves that KC are struggling with some fundamentals. This is a solid team, their results are not.

Team Heretics have been trending in the right direction for a while now, but I’m not sold on this team yet. They do a lot of things right and are now guaranteed a spot in the LEC 2024 Spring playoffs. They also played a good series on Friday, so it’s not wrong to believe Heretics can win.

The problem is that Karmine Corp are not that weak and there’s a world where something clicks and they start performing a swell as we know they can. Team Heretics are the better play, but it’s a pass for me.

  • Prediction: None

Similar Posts