The first pair of matches of LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage Round 4 are behind us, and we have Cloud9 and MAD Lions as the next two teams wo exit League of Legends World Championship 2023 empty-handed. On the other side, Fnatic and Weibo Gaming kept their chances of reaching the knockout stage alive.
On Friday, October 27, one more team will be sent home as GAM Esports take on Dplus KIA to secure their second victory and KT Rolster clash with China’s no.2 seed, LNG Esports, for a direct invite to the knockout stage.
GAM Esports vs Dplus KIA
When: Friday, October 27, 9:00 CEST (16:00 KST)
We don’t have to overcomplicate things here. Dplus KIA are Korea’s no.4 seed and one of the strongest teams at the tournament, whereas GAM Esports are Vietnam’s first seed and arguably the weakest team to enter LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage.
The latter statement can be argued over, considering GAM Esports beat Team Liquid, who were sent home with a 0-3 record. But that was more Team Liquid shooting themselves in the foot than GAM Esports showing any form of high-level gameplay.
Dplus KIA haven’t looked amazing so far in LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage, but this is still a team that deserves a lot of respect. Dplus KIA have so far lost against G2 Esports and KT Rolster, but they had a fairly easy time sweeping Team BDS.
That performance against BDS should be a good form guide on what will happen on Friday, considering GAM Esports are objectively weaker than the EU’s fourth seed. And that explains why Dplus KIA are 1.005 favourites and GAM Esports 17.00 underdogs.
This is possibly the biggest gap in odds we’ll see this tournament, and it suggests that GAM Esports have a 5.9% chance of beating Dplus KIA, which sounds about right. GAM Esports are priced at 6.00 to win a map, which translates to 16.7%.
The map handicap market interests me mainly because of how much stronger blue side is in this meta. Let’s remember that the blue side has over 70% win rate at LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage, and the only games in which teams won as a red side were series between heavy favourites and complete outsiders.
This game checks that criteria as it’s tough to find a good argument in favour of GAM Esports. They’re outclassed across all positions, and the only way for GAM to do any damage is if Dplus KIA shoot themselves in the foot. It has happened before, though.
I am leaning GAM Esports +1.5 maps at 6.00 (bet365) just because the esports betting odds are too high. But Dplus KIA have side selection, which gives GAM Esports just one chance to play on red. Pass for me.
- Prediction: None
KT Rolster vs LNG Esports
When: Friday, October 27, 12:00 CEST (19:00 KST)
After what should be a complete stomp, we’ll actually have a banger of a game featuring Korea’s KT Rolster and China’s LNG Esports. Both teams have looked decent so far and enter the match with a 2-1 record, which sits them just one win away from securing a ticket for the knockout stage.
Both teams have the tools to do well in this tournament, and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see either of them making the semifinals. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.
Esports bookmakers have KT Rolster priced as 2.37 underdogs and LNG Esports as 1.53 favourites, giving LNG a 65.4% implied probability of winning the series. This number is way too high.
KT Rolster have side choice, which instantly bumps up their chances of winning the series. LNG won a map on red side, but it was against Cloud9, so that doesn’t necessarily suggest that they’ll have an easy time playing on red this series.
One reason why LNG Esports are priced as favourites is their strong showing against the tournament favourites, JD Gaming (1-2), but that’s a complete overreaction. LNG Esports already did well against JDG during the regular season, so it’s not like it is indicative of LNG’s strength.
Besides JDG, LNG Esports have only played Cloud9 and Fnatic. That’s a fairly easy schedule and much easier than KT Rolster’s who had to play Bilibili Gaming, Dplus KIA and Weibo Gaming.
KT Rolster also hold better performance metrics. They’re +1065 GD@15 (LNG are +379) and have a higher GDPM at 172.1 to LNG’s 106.8. And they’ve managed such numbers despite playing stronger teams during LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage.
LNG Esports are very strong, but they’ve not shown as much as KT, and they don’t have side selection. I’m taking KT Rolster at plus money any day of the week.
- Prediction: KT Rolster to win – 2.37 at Pinnacle (get ps3838 account)
Check out our review of RebelBetting – the world’s leading arbitrage and value betting service.