The final round of the LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss stage is set to kick off on Saturday, October 28, when G2 Esports clash with NRG Esports and T1 takes on Bilibili Gaming for a spot in the knockout stage. So far, the fourth round of LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage has produced a handful of exciting clashes, and it’s fair to say it saved the best for last.
G2 Esports vs NRG Esports
When: Saturday, October 28, 9:00 CEST (16:00 KST)
Across all LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage performance metrics, G2 Esports are the better team than NRG Esports. They’ve also had a much tougher schedule, having to play Dplus KIA, Weibo Gaming, and Gen.G, compared to NRG Esports, who have only played Weibo Gaming, Team Liquid, and MAD Lions.
But there’s more to those records. Even though G2 Esports beat Dplus KIA and Weibo Gaming so far in LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage, they could’ve easily lost both, and G2 should’ve probably lost against Weibo. So, while I still firmly believe G2 Esports are by far the best Western team, they’re not as great as they’re portrayed to be.
This also begs the question of why NRG Esports are priced as 5.50 underdogs (bet365) and G2 Esports as 1.12 favourites. While I don’t mind seeing G2 Esports priced as the favourites, 1.12 is a way too pricey number for what they’ve shown so far. And considering the blue-red side imbalance, that becomes more notable considering NRG Esports have side choice.
G2 Esports should probably win through individual talent and strong teamplay alone, but at the offered betting odds, we have to take NRG Esports to win at least one map. They have the tools to do well and they’ll have two shots on blue side to secure a win, and that bumps up NRG’s chances to steal at least one point significantly – especially if we see another questionable draft from G2 (as we did against Gen.G).
A smaller position on NRG to win is worth considering, but I don’t have enough faith in LCS representatives to win the series.
You can find other solid value esports bets for this match on Surebet.
- Prediction: NRG Esports +1.5 Maps – 2.41 at Pinnacle (get ps3838 account)
T1 vs Bilibili Gaming
When: Saturday, October 28, 12:00 CEST (19:00 KST)
Soft esports bookmakers have priced T1 and Bilibili Gaming at the same odds (1.83 at bet365), whereas Pinnacle has T1 priced as 1.86 favourites and Bilibili Gaming as 1.961 underdogs. The price difference doesn’t have as much to do with the teams’ strength as it does with the side choice (T1).
This gives T1 a good headstart to defeat Bilibili Gaming; however, quality-wise, BLG are arguably the better team. As noted before, BIlibili Gaming are one of my picks to win LoL Worlds 2023, and there are many reasons to believe they can. For one, BLG are one of the best teams in the world, and their results (silver and bronze medal from LPL Spring and Summer Playoffs and a runner-up finish from MSI 2023) prove it.
Moreover, Bilibili Gaming have, this season, lost only against a couple of teams, and their loss record mainly includes JD Gaming, who beat BLG eight times. Any other team didn’t pose any serious threat to Bilibili Gaming.
During LoL Worlds 2023 Swiss Stage, Bilibili Gaming beat KT Rolster and Fnatic and added another loss against JD Gaming. T1, on the other side, edged past Team Liquid, lost against Gen.G, and humiliated Cloud9. Their schedule wasn’t particularly hard, and T1 hadn’t performed great until their third match against Cloud9, when they looked like an entirely different beast.
With side selection, T1’s chances of winning are greater, but quality-wise, BIlibili Gaming are the better team.
- Prediction: Bilibili Gaming to win – 1.961 at Pinnacle (get ps3838 account)
- Prediction: Bilibili Gaming -1.5 maps – 3.690 at Pinnacle (0.5 units)
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