MSI 2023 Play-In Stage Day 2 Betting Picks
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MSI 2023 Play-In Stage Day 2 Betting Picks

The League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational 2023 continues with the second round of the Play-In stage on Wednesday, May 3. Like the opening day, the second day of the tournament will feature two series Biliblili Gaming vs Movistar R7 and Golden Guardians vs GAM Esports, who will lock horns in the first round of Group A.

With one of the strongest teams at the tournament taking on Movistar R7, billed as the weakest LoL esports team attending the London event, and Golden Guardians playing GAM Esports, who will make their first MSI appearance since 2020, there’s plenty to look forward to. But ultimately, everyone wants to know who will win.

Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar R7

When: Wednesday, May 3, at 13:00 BST

Bilibili Gaming qualified for MSI 2023 as the League of Legends Pro League (LPL) second seed, and even though they failed to win the regional league, BLG are considered one of the strongest squads in London. Priced at 8.00 to go all the way, Bilibili Gaming are also the clear favourites to qualify from the Play-In stage.

Esports betting sites have the Chinese representatives priced at 1.005 (bet365) to defeat Movistar R7, which makes total sense since R7 are objectively the weakest squad team in the Play-In stage. Anyone can come to that conclusion by comparing the relative strength of the teams.

However, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, we’re two patches removed from the regular season, and most of the teams had a lot of downtime since ending their regional leagues, so it’s not fair to take their performances from the regular season and conclude that they’ll play at the same level on the international stage.

How the teams will do at the MSI is more about how they’ll do at the MSI and not so much about how they performed over the regular season.

This is also the main reason why it’s tough to come up with any firm conclusions for the first few rounds of play – at least until we see the squads in action. Of course, that doesn’t change the fact that minor region teams are historically worse than major region teams, but it’s not too uncommon for a minor region squad to “outperform” expectations – LOUD vs G2 Esports.

Do I expect Movistar R7 to humiliate Bilibili Gaming? Not necessarily, as it would have to be one of the biggest upsets we’ve seen in years. However, esports bookmakers have set the kill line at 14.5, which is a bit too generous in my book.

As much as we can agree that Bilibili Gaming will win this match 99% of the time, covering a 14.5-kill handicap is no small feat.

  • Prediction: Movistar R7 +14.5 kills – 1.884 Pinnacle

GAM Esports vs Golden Guardians

When: Wednesday, May 3, at 16:00 BST

It’s very easy to doubt the North American teams every chance we have, and for good reasons. LCS has become a laughing stock at international events, and while we have seen NA LoL esports teams achieve some success against other teams, they usually leave their fans disappointed.

With that in mind, it would make sense to fade Golden Guardians and trust the “always dangerous” Vietnamese squad in this series. However, I have faith in GG to prove all the doubters wrong.

Golden Guardians are very versatile and can play the game in many ways. Although I wouldn’t praise them too much, GG know their way around the Rift and will take advantage of opportunities when presented, so while I don’t expect GG to make a deep run, they should do well against other lesser-region teams. Not to mention that GG have experience playing on the international stage – the only exception is Gori.

Admittedly, the VCS is a strong region and has sent very formidable teams to international tournaments in the past. But the region’s level of play has regressed over the years, leaving people with rose-tinted goggles, remembering when Vietnamese LoL teams were strong, not realising that they’re not at the same level as years back.

GAM Esports dominated the VCS this season, for which we can praise them, but the reality is that the league didn’t have any strong teams this season, making it very easy for GAM to look good.

With all that in mind, it’s fair to be slightly surprised by the offered betting odds. Golden Guardians, who are objectively stronger than GAM, are still priced at 1.606 (Pinnacle), which is a generous offer. Of course, things would be different if GG were a new, inexperienced roster, but as noted, four of five players have played at MSI or Worlds before – not to mention that Golden Guardians had a good year.

  • Prediction: Golden Guardians to win – 1.606 at Pinnacle
  • Prediction: Golden Guardians -1.5 maps – 2.79 at Pinnacle

With that, we come to the end of our MSI 2023 Day 2 betting previews and predictions. If you wean to learn more about how to bet on League of Legends and esports, check our in-depth guides, recommended esports bookmakers, and our hand-picked betting tools every esports bettor should have in his arsenal.

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