MSI 2023 Play-In Stage Day 5 Betting Picks
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MSI 2023 Play-In Stage Day 5 Betting Picks

We’re nearing the end of the Mid-Season Invitational 2023 Play-In stage, with just two more rounds left to be played. On Saturday, May 6, we’ll see two of the most important games of the tournament’s opening stage, as Golden Guardians take on Movistar R7 and PSG Talon clash with LOUD in the lower bracket finals of their respective groups.

The winners will advance to the Last Chance Qualifiers, where they’ll duke it out for a spot in the MSI 2023 Bracket Stage and join the world’s top League of Legends teams in the race for the MSI trophy.

Movistar R7 vs Golden Guardians

When: Saturday, May 6, at 12:00 BST

Movistar R7 defied all the odds and defeated GAM Esports (2-1) on Friday in a three-map series, securing a spot in the final match of the group stage and keeping their dreams of qualifying for the Bracket Stage alive.

I won’t overreact to that victory since it’s not like beating GAM Esports is a massive achievement. The Vietnamese team were priced as heavy favourites to come out ahead of that affair, but as noted in our previous MSI 2023 betting preview, the Vietnamese teams aren’t as good as they’re portrayed to be.

But credit is where credit is due; Movistar R7 played well and deserved to come out ahead. Now the question remains – can they achieve the same success against Golden Guardians?

As much as it’s exciting to cheer on Movistar R7 to defeat the LCS representatives and shut up the community that annually overhypes North American teams ahead of international events, the reality is that Golden Guardians are leaps and bounds ahead of Movistar R7. They aren’t good enough to make a deep run at the MSI, but Golden Guardians didn’t disappoint in their victory against GAM Esports, nor did they look bad in their defeat against Bilibili Gaming (1-2).

Let’s remember that Golden Guardians nearly defeated Bilibili Gaming, which in the greater picture doesn’t mean much knowing how inconsistent BLG are, but GG proved that they have the talent to stand up against an LPL team, which is worth something.

Priced at 1.062 to defeat Movistar R7, Golden Guardians shouldn’t lose, and I don’t expect them to. I was looking at a bet on Movistar R7 with a kill handicap, but I would like to see a higher number than 11.5 to pull the trigger.

  • No Bet

LOUD vs PSG Talon

When: Saturday, May 6, at 15:00 BST

LOUD defeated DetonatioN FocusMe on Friday to book a spot in the final match of the group stage, where they’ll meet with the new-look PSG Talon. On paper, this looks like PSG Talon’s game to lose, and if we look at the pre-tournament odds, the VCS representatives should be heavily favoured to win, but it’s fair to look at it from another angle.

PSG Talon were considered the third-strongest team entering MSI 2023 Play-In stage, and it’s tough to argue with that – mainly because we only got to see them play two games; against DFM (2-0) and G2 Esports (0-2). LOUD, on the other side, were considered the second-weakest team of the Play-In stage, which we know now for sure that they’re not.

This is not an attempt to overhype LOUD for beating DetonatioN FocusMe, but I can’t quite agree with the offered esports betting odds. At 3.00, LOUD are expected to defeat PSG Talon only 1/3 times, which is a bit too generous of an offer given that this is still a match between two minor regions.

As noted before, minor region teams are known to struggle closing out games, and we’ve seen that with both PSG Talon and LOUD. Admittedly, LOUD are a bit more volatile, mainly due to their aggressive playstyle, yet this isn’t necessarily bad when faced with a team that has better individual players.

Can LOUD win? Yes, it’s entirely possible for them to come out ahead, but I’ll tame my expectations since I still have faith in PSG Talon to show better showings. Still, at 1.61, LOUD with a map handicap is an appealing play.

  • Prediction: LOUD +1.5 maps – 1.61 at bet365

This ends our MSI 2023 betting preview for Day 5 of action, offering you a brief insight into the upcoming games and our predictions. If you want to learn more about how to bet on esports, check out our recommended esports bookmakers, guides and tutorials, and the best esports betting tools every bettor should have in his arsenal.

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