Team Liquid vs NRG Esports Betting Tips - Friday, July 28
| |

Team Liquid vs NRG Esports Betting Tips – Friday, July 28

The second match of the League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2023 Championship Round 1 sees Team Liquid take on NRG Esports in what promises to be an entertaining affair. Not so much because these two teams are equally strong, but because of what their results from the LCS 2023 Summer regular season suggest.

NRG Esports, who finished the regular season in fifth place, shouldn’t pose a threat to Team Liquid, and the offered esports betting odds confirm that. However, NRG Esports are known to be the “giant killers”, so perhaps they shouldn’t be underestimated.

Team Liquid vs NRG Esports Betting Preview

When: Friday, July 28, 14:00 PDT

Team Liquid and NRG Esports will meet on Friday, July 28, 2023, in the first round of the LCS 2023 Championship. It’ll mark their third meeting of the split, having already clashed twice during the regular season.

Team Liquid won the first match convincingly but lost the rematch at the start of July, which isn’t a good sign. But despite the defeat, Team Liquid enter this match priced as 1.50 (at GG.Bet) favourites, which makes plenty of sense.

Team Liquid Are (Almost) Very Good

Team Liquid finished the regular season in fourth place with a 10-8 record (56% win rate), which isn’t too inspiring. They’ve also lost three of their final five games ahead of LCS 2023 Championship against TSM, Golden Guardians, and Evil Geniuses. Again, not a good look.

Throughout the season, Team Liquid haven’t shown anything spectacular, which makes sense that people don’t have high expectations for them and their chances to accomplish anything remarkable in the LCS 2023 Championship. And that’s fair.

As good as TL have looked at times, this team struggles in closing out games. They’re by far the best early-game team in the league (+2096.3 Gold Differential At 15 minutes), but despite all the massive leads TL consistently gain against more or less any opponents, they fail to convert those leads to wins as much as they should be able to.

If only Team Liquid could clean up their act in the mid-late game, this would be an extremely good team. But that’s still a big “if”.

NRG Esports, The Giant Killers

We have to clear one thing up with NRG Esports. This is not a good team. They’re flawed, lack top-tier talent, and their performance stats are middling, to say the least. But they hold a very good record against top teams.

NRG Esports made it to LCS 2023 Championship by the skin of their teeth, and they’ve collected many losses against bottom-table teams. But they’ve also beaten many of the top teams in the league.

  • NRG Esports’ record against the top-four teams: Cloud9 (2-0), Evil Geniuses (1-1), Golden Guardians (2-0), Team Liquid (1-1).
  • In contrast, NRG Esports’ record against bottom-four teams: Immortals (0-2), FlyQuest (1-1), 100 Thieves (1-1), Dignitas (1-1).

What does that tell us? To me, nothing important, but it’s a good narrative to follow – “NRG, the giant slayers!” It sounds fun, and there are some numbers to back it up, but if we focus solely on NRG Esports’ performances and their stats, NRG are not that good. Moreover, most of their wins against better teams were flukes and not quality wins.

The big issue I have with NRG, particularly for this match, is their lacklustre early game. In fact, NRG Esports are one of the worst early-game teams in the league (-564.5 Gold Differential At 15 minutes). So stylistically, Team Liquid will match up nicely with them, and we haven’t even gotten to comparing the individual talent.

Prediction

This is Team Liquid’s game to lose, and barring any surprises, they should win comfortably. I wouldn’t even be shocked if Team Liquid win 3-0, but we have to remember who we are dealing with.

Trying to justify a map handicap bet on Team Liquid really comes down to how much you believe Team Liquid will clean up their act in the mid-late game and actually close out the game which they’re in control of. Just because of how bad TL are at closing out games, I’m taking them to win with two maps to spare, but they might’ve gotten the practice in and improved in that aspect of the game.

As for NRG Esports – their biggest weakness (early game) is Team Liquid’s biggest strength. And with how snowbally LoL is, overcoming this handicap will be a monumental task.

  • Prediction: Team Liquid -1.5 maps – 2.06 at GG.Bet

Similar Posts