League of Legends World Championship 2023 comes to a close on Sunday, November 19, with the grand finals between T1 and Weibo Gaming, who will clash for all the marbles and the right to hoist the Summoner’s Cup. Ahead of LoL Worlds 2023, not many expected T1 to make it this far and even less that Weibo Gaming would be the final boss separating Lee “Faker” Sang-hyeok from his fourth LoL Worlds title.
But as unpredictable as the LoL Worlds 2023 has been, it’s tough to argue that either of the two teams don’t deserve to be where they are. Now the question is – will it be T1 or Weibo Gaming that’ll come out on top and win the world championship title?
Weibo Gaming vs T1
When: Sunday, November 19, 9:00 CET (17:00 KST)
T1 have looked great so far at LoL Worlds 2023, particularly in the latter stages, with wins against Cloud9, Bilibili Gaming, LNG Esports, and JD Gaming. By eliminating JD Gaming, T1 also earned the tag of a serious candidate to go all the way. But perhaps having T1 priced at 1.28 (bet365) is a bit of an over-exaggeration.
Admittedly, T1 beat every Chinese LoL esports team except for Weibo Gaming at LoL Worlds 2023, and knowing that Weibo Gaming are LPL’s fourth seed, T1 should, in theory, be even more dominant than they were against Bilibili Gaming, LNG Esports, and JD Gaming. But perhaps that’s just an excuse to follow the narrative and hype surrounding T1 and Faker winning the LoL Worlds 2023 title.
According to the esports betting odds, T1 are given a 78.1% implied probability of winning the series. To put it in perspective, that’s about the same number JD Gaming were given to defeat KT Rolster, Team Liquid to defeat GAM Esports, and LNG Esports against Cloud9 in the Swiss Stage.
Are T1 good? Yes, but are they relatively as good as the favourites were in those series? Probably not.
Weibo Gaming Weren’t Just Lucky
Weibo Gaming entered LoL Worlds 2023 as one of the underdogs to go all the way, and yet they managed to reach the final stage. This is very reminiscent of DRX last year, when we saw them defy all the odds and win the world championship title – against no other than T1.
Perhaps that’s another attempt at following a certain narrative of how LoL Worlds 2023 might feature another underdog win. However, it’s not too crazy to believe that Weibo Gaming can win.
|Av. Game Duration
Weibo Gaming have looked very good so far at LoL Worlds 2023. They might’ve had a fairly easy road at the start, but even when faced with tougher teams, Weibo Gaming delivered – which just proves the point I made before Weibo Gaming performs better when faced with tougher opponents.
We must also take into account that while T1 dominated LNG Esports and JD Gaming, the two Chinese teams made it easier for T1 to look good, mainly with their questionable drafts and inability to match T1’s early game. On the other side, WBG haven’t had any real challenges throughout LoL Worlds 2023, but they have elevated their level of play to an elite level and are more than deserving to be in the finals.
T1 look like the better team here. They have a very explosive early game and know how to close out games if the opportunity presents them. However, the raw quality of the teams hasn’t been the main reason for the results we’ve been getting throughout LoL Worlds 2023. Instead, it was the draft that had a bigger effect on the games.
Thankfully, Weibo Gaming and T1 know how to draft so as not to put themselves in a disadvantageous position, which means that side choice will likely play a bigger factor in tipping the scales. We’re back at square one.
This is a winnable game for both teams and as much as it’s true that T1 have looked better leading up to the LoL Worlds 2023 finals, I don’t see how they deserve to be priced at 1.28. This is a Weibo Gaming or pass situation, but there will probably be better in-play opportunities to explore once we see the drafts.
- Prediction: None